(Source: Columbus Ledger-Enquirer)By Tony Adams, Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, Ga.
Aug. 01–The Georgia economy is now in a wobbly recovery that will take three to four years before pre-recession levels of growth and job creation return, say leading economists.
Columbus, however, remains somewhat of a shining star in the state and should heal more rapidly in 2011 and into 2012 because of military and industrial projects now in the pipeline, they say.
“I still see Columbus as really being the top performer in the state in terms of metro areas in 2010 and 2011. So you’re still in the best place in the state,” said Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia.
“Augusta and Savannah and some of the others may start to catch up,” he said. “But you have several big projects that are in the build-out phase.”
Most notable is the highly touted and heavily anticipated transfer of the U.S. Army Armor Center and School to Fort Benning, a move that is already well under way in terms of construction.
But it is expected to intensify next spring and summer when the cadre, support staff, family members and trainees swell the post’s permanent and transient numbers. The military estimates the local population will grow by about 28,000 once the dust settles.
Then there’s Kia Motors America starting up its massive auto assembly plant last fall in nearby West Point, Ga., with plans to expand its production line this year. That company also has spawned a legion of auto parts suppliers in the area.
Other names that are either in start-up or expansion phase include ATM manufacturer NCR Corp., refrigeration equipment maker Kysor/Warren and wholesale food distributor Nash Finch Co.
“The local economy was dragged down by layoffs in its key financial services sector, which was a victim of the collapse in residential and commercial real estate,” Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities, wrote of Columbus in his July report on Georgia’s outlook.
“Columbus should continue to see modest economic gains over the next few years,” he said. “Hiring has picked up across a broad assortment of industries, and businesses continue to relocate operations or expand facilities in the region.”
The Columbus metro area had been seeing a steady decline in its unemployment rate through the spring. But it leaped from 9.2 percent in May to 9.7 percent in June, with the number of local people classified as jobless jumping to about 12,500, up nearly 650.
But without its military and commercial projects, the city likely would be facing a scenario similar to that of Georgia, the economists said. And the outlook is not a rapid rise to prosperity.
“We’re lagging quite a bit — not so much in the timing of our recovery, but the vigor is just not there,” Humphreys said of the state as a whole.
Georgia’s recovery remains on track about a year after the U.S. recession’s unofficial end, showing slight growth in gross state product — a measure of economic activity — and actually outperforming the economist’s expectations.
12:20pm – WALTER SPROUSE, an Augusta Richmond County economic developer will join us to chat about Convergent-ER Solutions and the call center they plan to bring to Augusta.
